Onchain Insight BTC & ETH Market Overview | 2026-02-07

🔴 Market Alert: Crypto Market Enters Deep Correction

The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing its worst correction since 2026, with both BTC and ETH showing significant declines, and on-chain data showing multiple pressure signals.

📊 Bitcoin (BTC) Market Overview

Key Indicators

• Current price:~$62,700

• 24-hour price change:-14.15% ⚠️

• 7-day price change:-25.84% 🔴

• Market capitalization ranking:#1 ($1.25T)

• Miner costs:Higher than the current market price (miners are operating at a loss).

Market sentiment: Extreme panic

Market sentiment indicators show investors are in a state of "extreme panic." After hitting a new high in January, BTC plummeted to around $60,000 today, briefly dipping below this key psychological level. The overall crypto market capitalization has evaporated by 9-15%, with major cryptocurrencies generally falling by 7-14%.

Key observations

1. Increased stress on miners
   On-chain data shows that miners' reserves are declining, and the average mining cost is now higher than the current market price, meaning that many miners are operating at a loss. Publicly listed mining company MARA recently transferred 1,317 BTC (approximately $87M) to multiple wallets and exchange addresses, suggesting potential selling pressure.

2. Technical breakdown
   BTC has broken through several key support levels and may continue to test the $48,659 - $56,452 range in the short term. The AI ​​model predicts an average price of $52,556 next month, a decrease of 16.18% from the current price.

3. Market Structure Shift
   The crypto market has moved beyond the era of blind speculation by 2026, with price fluctuations now reflecting more fundamental and macroeconomic factors. The current pullback may be a healthy market correction, building momentum for the next upward move.

📉 Ethereum (ETH) Market Overview

Key Indicators

• Current price:~$1,900

• 24-hour price change:-8.8% ⚠️

• Key support:$1,680 - $1,720

• Next goal:$1,666 (Technical Analysis)

• On-chain transaction count:1.17 million (14-day moving average, close to historical peak)

Market Sentiment: Mid-sized holders capitulate, whales accumulate shares against the trend

ETH has fallen below the psychological level of $2,000 and is currently struggling around $1,900. The market is showing a clear divergence: mid-sized holders are significantly reducing their positions, while large holders (whales) are increasing their holdings against the trend, indicating that institutional investors believe the current price is attractive.

Key observations

1. Whales vs. Retail Investors: Market Differentiation Intensifies

• Whales increase their holdings:Addresses holding 100,000+ ETH increased their balances from 2.75 million ETH to 3.68 million ETH last quarter.

• Organizational Structure:Wallets holding 10,000-100,000 ETH increased from 17.18 million ETH to 19.77 million ETH.

• Medium-sized surrender:Small and medium-sized shareholders significantly reduced their holdings, indicating panic selling by retail investors.

This divergence suggests that institutional investors view current price levels as a strategic buying opportunity, but it is not enough to prevent the overall market from falling.

1. On-chain data sends a warning signal.

• The number of transfers surged:On January 29, the 14-day moving average of ETH transfers surged to 1.17 million. Historically, such peaks typically occur at market tops.

  • January 2018: After peaking transaction volume, ETH entered a deep bear market.

  • May 19, 2021: A surge in transfers accompanied by a market crash and correction.

• Exchange inflows surge:Binance recorded an inflow of approximately 1.63 million ETH on Wednesday, the highest single-day figure since 2022, which typically foreshadows impending selling pressure.

1. Liquidation Storm: Leveraged Long Positions Suffer Bloodbath

• 24-hour settlement:ETH liquidation amounted to $337 million, second only to BTC's $738 million.

• Typical Case:A whale's 20x long ETH position was liquidated, resulting in a loss of over $4 million in 3 days.

• Systemic risks:In the past 24 hours, $1.45 billion was liquidated across the entire market, with ETH being the hardest hit.

1. Technical Analysis: Bearish flag confirmed, downside target $1,666.
   ETH has confirmed a break below the bearish flag pattern, falling below the key support level of $2,000. The current $1,900-$2,000 demand zone is the last major support before a deeper pullback. If this area is breached, the next target will be $1,680-$1,720, and it may even test $1,666.

2. Case Study of Institutional Deleveraging: Trend Research's $426M Sell-Off
   Trend Research is selling $426 million worth of ETH to mitigate leverage risk. The firm's average cost is $3,180, and it currently has a realized loss of $173 million and an unrealized loss of $474 million. The firm can only turn a profit if ETH returns above $3,180.

3. Market sentiment indicator: NUPL is nearing the surrender zone.
   ETH's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric is currently at 0.19, transitioning from profit territory to loss territory. A drop below zero would signal a complete capitulation and a potential market bottom.

🎯 Comprehensive Analysis: Market Narrative

Current narrative: Deleveraging + Panic selling

The market is undergoing a systemic deleveraging process. Highly leveraged long positions are being liquidated, mid-sized holders are surrendering and leaving the market, while institutional investors are contrarianly positioning themselves. This is a typical characteristic of a market shakeout.

BTC vs ETH: Divergent Performance

The report points out that ETH has consistently underperformed BTC during pullbacks, and its price has not yet reflected the true strength of its ecosystem. This could present an opportunity for long-term investors.

Key risk factors

1. Liquidation chain reaction:If prices continue to fall, it could trigger further liquidation of leveraged positions.

2. Miner selling pressure:BTC miners may be forced to sell their reserves while operating at a loss.

3. Continued inflows into exchanges:ETH net inflows to exchanges remain high, and selling pressure has not subsided.

4. Macroeconomic uncertainties:Volatility in traditional financial markets may further impact the crypto market.

💡 Onchain Theory Perspectives

Short term (1-2 weeks):

• BTC may test the $48K-$56K range

• ETH faces support test at $1,680-$1,720.

• It is recommended to wait and see, and wait for a clear bottoming signal.

Mid-term (1-3 months):

• The continued accumulation of shares by whales suggests that institutions are optimistic about the medium-term outlook.

• The market will be healthier after deleveraging is completed.

• Monitor on-chain fund flows and changes in exchange reserves

Long-term (6-12 months):

• The market has moved beyond blind speculation; fundamentals will now dominate prices.

• The strength of the ETH ecosystem is not fully reflected in its price, presenting an opportunity for value reassessment.

• The narrative of BTC as digital gold remains strong.

📈 Monitoring Indicator Recommendations

Follow us now:

• Will ETH hold the $1,900-$2,000 demand zone?

• Trends in BTC miner reserves

• Exchange net inflow/outflow data

• Is the liquidation volume continuing to decline?

• whale address accumulation behavior

Reversal signal:

• Exchange net outflows turn positive

• On-chain active addresses stabilize and rebound

• The NUPL indicator has bottomed out and rebounded.

• The number of large transfers has returned to normal levels.

⚠️ Risk Warning

This report is based on publicly available on-chain data and market information and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; investors should:

• Effective risk management and avoidance of excessive leverage

• Build positions in batches, avoid chasing highs and selling lows.

• Focus on fundamental changes, not short-term price fluctuations.

• Only invest funds that you can afford to lose.